WORLD BANK: EARTH’S TEMP. INCREASE WILL REACH 4°C WITHOUT POLICY CHANGES

Lindsay Kalter
GHG Monitor
11/30/12

Global climate change could increase fivefold over the next decade if worldwide pledges to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are not met, according to a recent report from the World Bank. The earth’s current temperature increase of 0.8°C above preindustrial levels could spike to 4°C by 2100, the report says—a difference approaching the magnitude of change that has occurred since the ice age. “Without further commitments and action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is likely to warm by more than 3°C above the preindustrial climate,” the report states. “Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as early as the 2060s.”

This potential increase far exceeds the 2°C upper limit for acceptable global temperature increases established at the 2009 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) summit in Copenhagen, which has been recently deemed unfeasible by several analysts. But even if that limit is maintained, the report says, the world’s developing areas could still be at risk due to weak infrastructure, low resources and geographic vulnerability. So-called Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries “have identified global warming of 1.5°C as warming above which there would be serious threats to their own development and, in some cases, survival,” the report says.

The World Bank projects that such a temperature hike would cause extreme heat waves, a rise in sea level and a significant increase in ocean acidification. Temperatures reached during Russia’s 2010 heat wave—which resulted in 55,000 deaths and a 25 percent crop failure—will become the area’s new climatic norm, the report says. “In regions such as the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East and the Tibetan plateau, almost all summer months are likely to be warmer than the most extreme heat waves presently experienced,” the analysis states. “For example, the warmest July in the Mediterranean region could be 9°C warmer than today’s warmest July.” In addition, a CO2 concentration above 800 parts per million in the earth’s atmosphere could be expected, resulting in an increase of about 150 percent in ocean acidity, the Bank says. The International Energy Agency has said that nations should strive for an atmospheric CO2 concentration of no more than 450 parts per million if they want to stay under the 2°C limit.

Congress Reacts to Report

Predictions made in the World Bank report have galvanized some Democrats in Congress to take action. In a Nov. 19 letter to the Republican leadership on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the panel’s Ranking Member Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and Energy and Power Subcommittee Ranking Member Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) urged their colleagues to hold a hearing specifically to address the analysis. “This is an alarming and sobering report from an organization not known for its environmental activism,” the letter says.  “As we develop our energy agenda for the next Congress, members of the Committee should have the opportunity to examine the latest information about climate change and the very serious global consequences of inaction.” The report’s release immediately preceded UNFCCC’s climate change summit that began this week in Doha, Qatar.