Brian Bradley
NS&D Monitor
3/27/2015
A White House official this week responded point by point to three Russian assertions that the U.S. has violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, while reiterating Washington’s goal to bring Russia back into compliance with the agreement. The U.S. publicly accused Russia in July of violating INF Treaty by developing a ground-launched cruise missile capable of hitting ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Russian officials denied the allegation, and cited U.S. use of booster rockets as ballistic missile targets, armed drones and the Aegis Ashore missile defense shield as violations of the treaty.
Jon Wolfsthal, Senior Director for Arms Control and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council, during a presentation March 24 at the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference, maintained that the U.S. had not broken the agreement, underscoring that the treaty permits use of rocket boosters as ballistic missile targets, that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are not cruise missiles and that the Aegis is not capable of launching offensive missiles. He called Russia’s assertion about the targets a “chaff” to distract from more serious stated U.S. concerns. “The goal is that [booster] systems not be used for research and development for missiles, but that they be used solely for testing the ballistic missile defense systems, and that’s exactly what the United States does,” Wolfsthal said. “The second issue of armed UAVs, put very simply, a UAV is a UAV. It is not a cruise missile. A cruise missile is a cruise missile, and we do not have ground-launched cruise missiles that are within the ranges of the treaty limits.”
U.S. Ready to Reengage Russia
Wolfsthal also said the U.S. would be willing to engage Russia with their concerns about drone deployments, but noted the INF Treaty does not cover such capabilities and called the Russian viewpoint “unsupportable.” He underscored that the U.S. is still trying to bring Russia back into compliance with the treaty. “We’re gravely concerned about Russia’s violation of this important bedrock treaty,” Wolfsthal said. “The evidence is compelling and it is conclusive. Because of the sources, we are in, I would say, a disadvantaged position, but it’s been made very clear to Russian government the nature of our concerns, and we’ve provided more than enough information to engage in a substantive discussion.”
Expert: Russia Has Generally Negative Opinion Toward Arms Control
Alexei Arbatov, Scholar in Residence for the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, said Russia’s attitude toward nuclear arms control is generally negative, noting that arguments used against the INF Treaty are that the agreement only involves U.S. and Russian weapons, while other countries are developing similar capabilities, and that the U.S. is not in range of medium-range missiles while Russia is in that range. “In Russia now, the INF Treaty is perceived as the symbol of the Russian policy of indefinite unilateral concessions to the United States,” Arbatov said at the Carnegie Nuclear Conference. “This treaty was the beginning of [former Soviet leader Mikhail] Gorbachev’s political thinking … and nowadays in Russia, this is something that’s extremely unpopular.”
Wolfsthal said the U.S. would engage Russia if Moscow voiced concerns about the treaty’s utility, but he said the Kremlin hasn’t indicated those concerns, and has only shown a willful violation of the treaty. The U.S. is prepared to discuss what it would take to return to compliance, but that would require a “very detailed” verification process, including thorough inspections, Wolfsthal said.
Is Russia Returning to Old Norms?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has undermined the potential stability offered by the INF Treaty by displaying “outrageously bad faith,” Frank Miller, Principal at the Scowcroft Group, said during the Carnegie conference. “The United States and NATO simply cannot afford to enter into agreements which we respect and Russia violates, and that, put simply, in why there should be no future arms control on INF systems, or even short-range nuclear systems in Europe, where I would note the Russian position is the same wedge-driving position formerly advanced by the Soviet Union, that the United States must withdraw the small number of nuclear weapons based in Europe for the protection of allies before any discussions can begin.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier this month accused the U.S. of violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty through its basing of nuclear weapons in Europe.