After years of prolonged operations and little chance of a decreased tempo in years to come, the U.S. Air Force faces force structure shortfalls to varying degrees for each of its aircraft classes, a new study by the RAND Corp. has found.
Analyzing four separate hypothetical operational situations, the nonpartisan research group found that whether the service is involved in longer regional conflicts, supporting shorter-term counterterrorism or counterinsurgency operations or participating in peace enforcement operations, the fleets would be unable to meet at least part of the required demands.
The August report titled, “Is the USAF Flying Force Large Enough? Assessing Capacity Demands in Four Alternative Futures,” declared that as of 2017, no aircraft class was capable of meeting even 80 percent of its demands across all four scenarios.
Of the eight categories – airlift; attack; bomber; command, control, communications and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance/battle management (C3ISR/BM); fighter; Special Operations Forces (SOF); tanker; and “other” aircraft to include combat search-and-rescue helicopters – five were not sufficiently ready for a regional conflict similar to the Vietnam and Korean Wars.
The airlift and bomber fleets face shortfalls in shorter conflicts, such as Operation Desert Storm, but the service should meet between 84 percent and 100 percent of demands for the other six aircraft, it added.
Historically, peace enforcement operations have been the most stressful to Air Force capacity, the report noted. The need for prolonged no-fly zones means that fighter, tanker and bomber platforms must be in continuous rotation, and five classes of aircraft meet less than 46 percent of demands in that hypothetical, while two meet 53 percent to 64 percent of demands. Airlift platforms such as Boeing’s [BA] C-17 transport aircraft, however, were ready to meet 97 percent of possible demand.
The service is also investing in several new platforms that will bring relief to its fleets. The B-21 bomber, in development by Northrop Grumman [NOC], will eventually supplement the aging B-52 bomber fleet, as the Air Force plans to retire the younger B-1 and B-2 platforms by the 2030s.
