Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
4/3/2015
As the informal deadline for countries to submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change hit this week, several countries, including the United States, announced their post 2020 climate goals. The U.S. targets closely mirror commitments made in November 2014 during a joint announcement with China, at which time the United States committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 and China committed to setting targets to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and to increase non-fossil fuel energy production to 20 percent of its energy mix by 2030. “As we said last November and as is captured clearly in the INDC we’re submitting today, we will make best efforts to achieve the upper end of the 26 to 28 percent range. That puts the United States on a trajectory to achieve deep economy-wide reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on the order of 80 percent by 2050,” Senior Advisor to the President Brian Deese said during a press call.
The INDCs are public commitments made by countries stating what they intend to do to combat the global issue of climate change. The UNFCCC had asked countries to submit these plans by the end of March, well ahead of the 21st Conference of the Parties to be held in Paris in December, at which time a new international climate agreement is hoped to the struck. Though the deadline was informal, many key developed countries, such as Canada and Australia have yet to submit. “We have an opportunity this year to achieve an historic agreement that would establish an ambitious, durable regime, genuinely applicable to all countries for the first time. And the foundation stone for such an agreement are the nationally determined targets that countries submit,” U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd Stern told reporters.
It is also suspected that the Chinese INDC, though it has not been submitted at this time, will reflect the commitments made in the U.S. joint announcement and perhaps include further action. “Looking towards the climate commitment for the Paris agreement we expect that China will likely have an additional carbon intensity reduction target for 2030. … Just what that carbon intensity reduction target will be I think that’s going to be important for providing a signal about what is the peak in CO2 emissions going to look like,” Alvin Lin, Director of China Climate and Energy Policy for the Natural Resources Defense Council, told reporters during an NRDC teleconference this week.
Mexico, Russia and EU Among Those Making Submissions
Mexico became the first developing nation to submit a plan early this week, joining the 32 developed nations that have delivered their contributions to the Paris agreement. Mexico’s plan included non-conditional targets, which essentially means “they’re saying this is what they can do on their own, they can achieve on their own,” NRDC Latin America advocate Carolina Herrera said during the NRDC teleconference. In its INDC, Mexico commits to reducing unconditionally 25 percent of its greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants emissions for the year 2030 from a business as usual baseline. U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz praised Mexico’s planned target this week. “The commitment Mexico has made today sends a strong signal of Mexico’s determination to do its share in helping the world reduce emissions globally; it stands as an example for countries around the world to follow as they undertake ambitious goals to combat climate change as we all prepare for the upcoming COP21 meetings in Paris this December,” Moniz said in a statement.
Other countries that submitted plans this week include:
— Russia, committing to limit anthropogenic greenhouse gases to 70 to 75 percent of 1990 levels by the year 2030;
— the nations of the European Union, committing to a 40 percent domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2030;
— Switzerland, committing to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels;
— Norway, committing to a target of at least a 40 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels; and
— Gabon, committing to a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2025 from a business as usual baseline.
Domestic Action Needed to Ensure Success
Accountability for these commitments will be largely domestic, depending on policy measures put in place by each of the countries, according to Jake Schmidt, NRDC International Program Director. “We lose sight of this sometimes, but the fundamental most important accountability provision is what kind of policies and rules countries are putting in place domestically to achieve these targets. It’s always hard to capture in an international agreement, but there’s some effort you can see in what countries are proposing this time to provide as much specificity as possible in terms of the kinds of measures that they’re envisioning will be essential to meeting this target,” Schmidt said during the NRDC teleconference.
This strategy can be seen in the U.S. INDC, which Stern and Deese say can be achieved using only measures that are already in motion. “We can achieve this goal using laws that are already on the books. The INDC we’re submitting today highlights policies that will get us to that goal. It highlights both policies that are already in place and are delivering benefits for the American economy, while reducing carbon pollution, as well as several policies that are in the process of being formalized and will be in place by the time the president leaves office,” Deese said.
This includes the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed carbon emissions standards for coal-fired power plants, which have become the focus of several legal challenges. The regulations, which would set state-specific carbon emission reduction goals and require the states the develop action plans to meet those goals, are due to be finalized mid-summer. With these regulations being a key piece to the U.S. INDC, if they were to fail in the court the United States would have to develop a backup plan to meet its commitments. However, Deese said, the Obama Administration does not believe this will be the case. “We’re quite confident that this is a well-established legal framework that we’re operating under,” he said.
Carbon Reduction Targets Could Provide Opportunity for CCS Innovation
While much remains unknown about the INDCs yet to be filed and what the final agreement out of Paris will look like, the carbon capture and storage industry is viewing the INDCs announced thus far optimistically. “The [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s] latest synthesis report indicates it could cost nearly 140 [percent] more to achieve climate targets without CCS. What is needed now is for national policies that can drive CCS as we simply can’t reach our climate goals without it. The Institute is therefore optimistic that CCS will be a feature of many countries’ policies to achieve their INDCs,” Brad Page, CEO of the Global CCS Institute, told GHG Monitor in a written response this week.
