Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
7/11/2014
Unless significant steps are taken soon, the global mean temperature is set to rise 3.7 – 4.8 degrees Celsius, which could lead to catastrophe, according to a report released this week by the Deep Decarbonizatrion Pathways Project (DDPP). The report lays out pathways for several countries, including the United States, suggesting steps to be taken to do their part in keeping the global mean temperature below a 2 degree rise to avoid disastrous climate change affects. The only way to keep below the 2 degree target, the report says, is an “an internationally coordinated, goal-oriented approach,” with each nation doing its part to reduce emissions. The DDPP is a subsidy of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, a global initiative for the United Nations.
The pathway the report lays out for the U.S. is stringent. “In 2010, U.S. energy-related emissions were approximately 18 metric tons of [carbon dioxide] per person. For the U.S. to do its share in reaching the 2 [degree] target, by 2050 this per capita emissions level will need to decrease by an order of magnitude,” the report says. In order to meet CO2 reductions targets, the report notes five steps to be taken: improvements in end-use energy efficiency, a near-total decarbonization of electricity generation, extensive electrification of end-uses, fuel switching to partially decarbonized pipeline gas and the use of CCS for some large-scale industrial gas users. In the scenario laid out in the report no fossil fuel generation exists without CCS by 2050. The report finds that “collectively, fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas, with and without CCS) decrease from 92 percent of primary energy supply in 2010 to 47 percent of primary energy in 2050.”
Report Notes Steps U.S. Is Taking
The report notes that while the United States does not have federal climate legislation or a binding national GHG emissions target, it has taken steps to reduce emissions. “Nonetheless, the U.S. has taken important steps in low-carbon policy and technology deployment at the federal, state, and local government levels,” the report says, going on to list recent executive branch actions concerning fuel economy and demand-side energy efficiency. “In June 2014, the Obama Administration announced plans to apply the federal Clean Air Act to CO2 emitted by power plants, setting a target of a 30 percent reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, which, if implemented successfully, will hasten the transition from uncontrolled coal generation to natural gas or coal with CCS,” the report says.
China Needs to Increase CCS Use, Report Says
Other countries addressed in the report include Australia, Canada, China, France, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and the United Kingdom. Notably, the report calls for an increase in nuclear and renewable energy generation in China as well as an increase in CCS. “Since thermal power, especially from coal, is an important source of local pollutants and GHGs, the decarbonization of power sector is of significance for the achievement of low-carbon development,” the report says. “The carbon emission intensity of power generation in 2050 will decrease from 743 gCO2/kwh in 2010 to 32 gCO2/kwh in 2050. This is permitted by the large-scale use of nuclear (which reaches 25% of electricity production in 2050), intermittent renewables (installed capacity of wind and solar respectively equal 900 GW and 1,000 GW in 2050, contributing 18% and 17% of electricity generation respectively), and hydro (which accounts for an additional 18%). Fossil-fuel power generation units still represent 24% of electricity generation in 2050 (notably because natural gas power generation technologies act as an important back-up technology for intermittent generation technologies). Fossil-based emissions are reduced by a large percentage due to the deployment of efficient technology options (notably, all new coal power plants after 2020 will be supercritical, ultra- supercritical, or IGCC power generation technologies) and CCS facilities on 90% of coal power plants and 80% of natural gas power plants. This diffusion supposes that CCS technology will become commercialized after 2030.”
