In the wake of Donald Trump securing his second term as president, the GOP on election day also regained majority in the Senate with new leaders set to take over the upper chamber’s defense authorization and spending panels in the next Congress.
While much remains to be finalized with key committee posts in the coming months, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) is in position to take over as the likely next leader of the Senate Armed Services Committee and potentially pursue a previously detailed agenda to boost defense spending to five percent of the gross domestic product.
Republicans on Tuesday won back the Senate by flipping seats in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, with a few remaining races still to be called even as of Friday.
Senate race results of note included Armed Services member and nuclear modernization proponent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) defeating a competitive challenge from Independent Dan Osborn, House Armed Services Committee (HASC) member Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) beating former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers for the open Michigan Senate seat and appropriator Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) winning her reelection bid against Republican Eric Hovde.
Two races with implications for congressional defense policy remained uncalled as of deadline Friday for Nuclear Security & Deterrence Monitor. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), now a member of the House Armed Services Committee, was as of Friday leading in his race against Republican Kari Lake. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was narrowly leading Republican Sam Brown in her reelection bid.
Wicker, meanwhile, has already laid groundwork for his agenda in a Republican-controlled Senate.
In late May, the Senator from Missouri unveiled his plan for a “generational investment” in defense, which included: a push to boost the fiscal year 2025 defense budget by an additional $55 billion; increasing annual defense spending to five percent of the U.S. gross domestic product; maxing out munitions production capacity; growing the size of the Navy fleet and moving into production of modernization efforts across the services.
Meanwhile, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who has been the Senate’s top defense appropriator since 2021, lost his race to Republican and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, opening up the coveted chairmanship spot on the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee.
It remains to be seen which Republicans will vie for the gavel on the defense appropriations subcommittee. The panel’s senior Republicans include current Senate Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is stepping down from his leadership post in the next Congress.
McConnell told reporters this week that he has not made a decision about whether to pursue the chair of the full Appropriations Committee. McConnell did say that he plans to “concentrate on defense and foreign policy” in the next Congress.
“I think this is the most dangerous time since right before World War II. Our adversaries – the North Koreans, the Chinese, Russians, Iran and Iran’s proxies – are all talking to each other. They have one thing in common, they hate us. And they want to diminish our role in the world,” McConnell said. “We need to ramp up defense spending in order to prevent a direct conflict with our adversaries. It’s a lot cheaper to prevent war than it is to have one. So that’s the focus I’m going to have for the next couple years.”
Meanwhile, control of the House in the next Congress remained undecided as of deadline Friday, with several national security-focused lawmakers involved in key races that could help determine the next majority. Republicans, however, were outperforming Democrats in the race for the House, at deadline.
Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), both members of the House Armed Services Committee, won their competitive reelection campaigns. These were seen as key seats to help Republicans retain their majority in the lower chamber.
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), the House’s top defense appropriator, was narrowly leading Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins with the race too close to call at deadline Friday. House Armed Services member Reps Jared Golden (D-Maine) and appropriator Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) were also leading their respective races at deadline.
After most of the election results rolled in this week, investment analysts offered some takes on the Congress and administration to come.
“The potential clean sweep means fewer roadblocks to push through legislation which for defense could mean a biased stance against supplementals, the buildout of a national mission defense system, protectionism and ensuring allies pay for their shared defense,” financial services firm Jefferies wrote in a note, citing its defense sentiment for a Trump administration as “likely negative.”
The GOP platform for 2024 included building an “Iron Dome Missile Defense Shield” over the entire country among a list of 20 “promises” for the potential Trump administration.
Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners wrote on Wednesday that his firm sees “uneven risks” for defense next year with Trump’s win, a GOP-controlled Senate and a potential “razor-thin” Republican majority in the House.
“We expect that the B-21 bomber, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, and stockpile modernization will be just fine. We are slightly more guarded on Sentinel [future ICBM] for now. Defense technology (AI, autonomy, etc) should be fine too. However, there could be more questions about force size and architecture, particularly if Europe is downplayed and/or Asian countries are prompted to spend more,” Callan wrote.
A version of this story first appeared in Exchange Monitor affiliate publication Defense Daily.
