Nuclear Security & Deterrence Monitor Vol. 21 No. 39
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Nuclear Security & Deterrence Monitor
Article 2 of 11
October 13, 2017

Trump Says Iran Not Compliant With Nuclear Deal

By Dan Leone

Iran committed multiple violations of a 2015 nuclear nonproliferation agreement intended to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon, President Donald Trump said Friday.

Breaches of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) included Iran twice exceeding the amount of heavy water it is allowed to possess under the deal, according to Trump. Heavy water can be used to make plutonium.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in tracking Trump administration statements regarding Iranian compliance, noted that the nation had exceeded its allowed heavy-water levels twice in 2016. But the government both times then shipped material to Oman to return to compliance.

Trump also said Tehran has bullied inspectors with the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency into conducting less-than-thorough inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities, including preventing these inspectors from entering military sites. According to the text of the agreement, inspectors may request access to a site, but such requests “will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities.”

Trump did not say during a roughly 20-minute news conference when the violations occurred, but he did say they were proof that he could not certify that Iran has complied with the JCPOA. The president, under U.S. law, must certify compliance every three months.

“Based on the factual record I have put forward, I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification,” Trump said from the White House. He took no questions.

The Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is one of the U.S. actors in the JCPOA. Under the accord, the semiautonomous stockpile steward and nonproliferation ward assists with the safe transfer of nuclear material out of Iran. That includes heavy water, a cache of which the NNSA took delivery of last year in connection with the JCPOA.

Now that Trump has decertified Iran’s compliance with JCPOA, Congress has the option, but not the obligation, to reimpose economic sanctions lifted under the deal. Trump said those “strong economic sanctions” had nearly brought Iran’s government to its knees before the JCPOA was signed two years ago.

Besides the U.S., the JCPOA includes China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all of whom lifted economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Tehran’s cooperation on nuclear issues. Leaders of those nations have urged the United States against abandoning the agreement.

Near the end of the news conference, Trump warned that if Congress does not produce a solution to his liking, “then the agreement [JCPOA] will be terminated. It is under continuous review and our participation can be canceled by me, as President, at any time.”

Nuclear experts, including former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who helped negotiate JCPOA, have said letting Iran out of the deal would only make it easy for the nation to develop nuclear weapons away from the watchful eyes of international inspectors.

Earlier this month, both Defense Secretary James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford said they supported the JCPOA.

The leaders of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom quickly issued a statement expressing concern over Trump’s decision, and affirming their support for the agreement.

“We stand committed to the JCPoA and its full implementation by all sides. Preserving the JCPoA is in our shared national security interest. The nuclear deal was the culmination of 13 years of diplomacy and was a major step towards ensuring that Iran’s nuclear programme is not diverted for military purposes,” according to British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Emmanuel Macron. “The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly confirmed Iran’s compliance with the JCPoA through its long-term verification and monitoring programme. Therefore, we encourage the US Administration and Congress to consider the implications to the security of the US and its allies before taking any steps that might undermine the JCPoA, such as re-imposing sanctions on Iran lifted under the agreement.”

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