The United States cannot meet its nationally determined pledge under the Paris climate agreement with current policy measures alone, making additional action by states, cities, and business action key, experts said Wednesday during an event hosted by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) and New America. Analysis of the greenhouse gas reductions possible under current federal policies, including the threatened Clean Power Plan, shows the nation could reduce GHGs 23 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 “if everything lines up right,” according to John Larsen, director of the Rhodium Group.
Under the Paris Agreement, adopted in December, the U.S. has pledged to reduce its GHG emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. “Twenty-three is not all that far off from our Paris pledge, but it is not meeting the goals,” Larsen said, adding that “current policy is certainly pointing in the right direction, and we’ve got time to pursue additional action to bend the curve even further and into the Paris pledge range.”
Not all emissions reductions, however, will be dictated by federal regulations, and other variables are much harder to predict. If economic growth in coming years occurs faster or slower than predicted GHG emissions will fall more slowly or quickly, for example. It’s also tough to predict the rate of adoption of innovational technologies, as well as the possible introduction of new technologies.
“Some of these projections look daunting, as well they should, but as … these projections are not written in stone, they’re not what has to happen, there’s not what should happen. Instead, they are what is most likely to happen based on the economic and technical choices that people are making today,” said Ellen Williams, director of the Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E).
Perhaps most significantly, it is difficult to predict and quantify actions taken at the state or city level, or those from businesses outside of federal mandate. Such entities have issued several announcements and commitments in recent months. For example, more than 150 companies have signed the American Business Act on Climate Pledge, voicing support for the Paris climate pledge. Governors of 17 states have signed an “Accord for a New Energy Future,” pledging to pursue a clean energy future. The states of California and Connecticut, along with 15 U.S. cities and one county, joined the Chinese municipality of Beijing, provinces of Sichuan, Hainan, and Jilin, and seven Chinese cities in making commitments to cut emissions in the U.S.-China Climate Leaders’ Declaration.
“Having all these groups work together, looking at what new and other alternatives could be forthcoming in policy, these are all important things when we start to think about these gaps and what may come forward and what might evolve and what analytics we still need to do,” said Bob Perciasepe, president of C2ES.
Scott Fulton, president of the Environmental Law Institute, also noted the potential contributions of the private sector in closing the gap. “As carbon intensity increasingly becomes a risk indicator and a decision point for investment decisions, for loan decisions, for insurance underwriting, for supply chain selection, we could see the needle move significantly because of that,” he said. “It’s a little hard to project out what that could produce, but it does seem likely to offer considerable assistance in closing the gap.”
