Brian Bradley
NS&D Monitor
9/12/2014
After the expiration of the current five-year Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), ongoing development of the long-range strike bomber (LRS-B) and replacement of 14 Ohio-class submarines could cause a significant dent in the post-Fiscal Year 2019 defense budget, according to a report by Todd Harrison, senior fellow of defense budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, released last week. While the most recent (2013) Defense Department Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) omits the programs, the Navy and Air Force have publicly identified them as top priorities.
The CSBA report estimates the total costs of the Ohio replacement and LRS-B in FY 2015 dollars at $90 billion and $73 billion, respectively. Along with the $351 billion total estimated cost of manufacturing 2,443 F-35s, the sub and bomber plans round out the three most expensive current DoD acquisition programs. While Harrison said that it is too far in advance to predict specific cuts, he said that decisionmakers often target big programs like the F-35. “The F-35 program is already in the program of record and it’s taking up a lot of the budget space, so I think that is one of the tradeoffs the services will have to consider is, do they buy the full quantity of the F-35 or do they buy it at the rate they’re planning on buying it?” Harrison said. “Or, if they decide to leave the program alone, then they have to make offsetting costs elsewhere in their program and they’ve got a lot of other important priorities as well.”
Making F-35 Nuclear Capable Not a Significant Budget Hit
While the fate of the F-35’s planned nuclear capability hangs in the balance, Harrison said the upgrade, estimated to cost approximately $1 billion, occupies such a small portion of the aircraft’s total budget that decisionmakers would have to identify other options to free up necessary amounts of money. “The dual-capable aircraft program is not going to free up the kind of money we’re talking about here to fund something like the long-range bomber,” Harrison said. “To free up money for the bomber, you need to free up tens of billions of dollars.” While the F-35’s nuclear capability could be slashed if the B61 refurbishment flops, Harrison said he doesn’t anticipate that happening.
Harrison also identified the $92.5 billion Virginia-class special operations and cruise missile submarine, the $41.8-billion C130-J cargo aircraft, the $49.5-billion modernization of KC-46 aerial refueling tankers as possible reduction casualties. The report derived its cost estimates from DoD officials’ public statements. The LRS-B and Ohio-class replacement are projected to cost $11.4 billion and about $10 billion, respectively, over the current FYDP.
Air Force Only Service to Receive Real Boost in FY 2015
The “Analysis of the FY 2015 Defense Budget” also showed the Air Force to be the only service to receive a real increase in FY 2015. The service is planning for a 0.6 percent FY 2015 budget increase, over the current $135 billion FY 2014 funding level. It plans for an 8.6 percent increase in FY 2016. The service currently occupies 27 percent of the FY 2014 defense budget, which is projected to increase to a 28 percent share in FY 2019. The Navy’s budget is expected to stay at about 29 percent of the budget share until the end of the FYDP. The Army’s share is expected to fall from the FY 2014-enacted 25 percent budget share to 23 percent in 2019.
