Todd Jacobson
NS&D Monitor
1/30/2015
Like the Navy, the Air Force has a large nuclear modernization bill looming, and the idea of a separate deterrence fund for upgrading the air legs of the nuclear triad is gaining traction, according to Global Strike Command chief Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson. The Navy has proposed a sea-based deterrence fund to pay for the Ohio Class nuclear submarine replacement project and Congress signed off on the concept in the Fiscal Year 2015 omnibus appropriations act. The approach could be applicable to funding the new intercontinental ballistic missile and long-range bomber, Wilson said this week. “We’re looking to see how we could do something like that,” Wilson told the Defense Writers Group Jan. 27. “We think we need a sustained commitment, both resources and attention to focus, across a period of years going forward. We’re keenly watching how the Navy is doing this.”
Wilson said the issue is being discussed at senior levels of the Pentagon, led by Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work. He said the issue has been a topic at monthly meetings of the Nuclear Deterrent Enterprise Review Group. “He [Work] is working closely with the Secretary [of the Air Force] and the chief [of staff] as to the investments for the nuclear enterprise going forward,” Wilson said.
Big Bill Looming
While there is largely agreement among Administration officials that it is necessary to modernize the nation’s nuclear forces—from the submarines to the bombers and ICBMs—how to pay for the upgrades in a time of increasing budget austerity remains a larger question. A Congressional Budget Office study released last week estimated that the U.S. could need about $348 billion from 2015 to 2024 to maintain and modernize the nation’s nuclear deterrent.
Behind the Ohio Class replacement, bombers make up the biggest portion of the estimate, with DoD projected to spend $32 billion and DOE expected to spend $7 billion over the next 10 years. CBO estimates that DoD will spend $24 billion and DOE will spend $3 billion toward ICBMs over the next 10 years, though there is some uncertainty about the agency’s plans for the ground-based strategic deterrent.
Thornberry: Get a Handle on Deterrence Needs Before Funding Solution
The sea-based deterrence fund for the Ohio Class replacement would separate money from the larger shipbuilding budget, but it would not necessarily provide top-line budget relief. Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas), the new chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, last week pledged to work with appropriators to “understand the bigger picture” before making future decisions about dedicated funds for nuclear modernization, whether for the Navy or the Air Force. “You’ve got to understand the bigger picture before you go to what needs to be done this year,” Thornberry told the Defense Writers Group last week. “We’re going to work with the appropriators understanding the bigger picture and try to develop the best plan forward year by year to get there.”
He said the Air Force could have just as good an argument as the Navy for a dedicated fund, but he was noncommittal about support for the funding approach. “I don’t know the accounting method that makes the most sense,” Thornberry told reporters in separate comments this week. “What I do know is that the bills to update and modernize all of these systems are coming due at once and we don’t have a choice about it, and I’m concerned about that.”
HASC to Hold Full Committee Hearing on Nuclear Deterrence
Thornberry said he planned to hold a full committee hearing to review the nation’s strategic nuclear deterrent and get a handle on the needs for the weapons complex, nuclear arsenal and fleet of delivery vehicles. “From the missiles and the bombers to the submarines and the warheads, we have very old, aging machines, but upon those machines the rest of our defense efforts depend,” Thornberry said. “Not only is it the bill [coming due], it’s the plan that is really important I think for the future of the country. I think the full committee needs to look at the overall plan, including the cost, and then of course the individual subcommittees will look at the various programs.”
In contrast to previous years, Thornberry said he plans to delay budget hearings for a month or two in order to allow the committee to hold hearings on global threats and challenges. Typically, the committee has held budget hearings soon after the President releases his annual budget request, which is scheduled this year for Feb. 2.
