REPORT FINDS GAP IN CHINA’S EMISSIONS DATA

Lindsay Kalter
GHG Monitor
06/15/12

A 1.4 gigatonne discrepancy has been identified in China’s emissions reporting information, a finding that could signal flawed accounting inventories or the modification of data by government officials, according to a recent report published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The report compares two data sets from the National Statistical Bureau: one for the nation of China, and the other for its 30 provinces. The national statistics state that Chinese carbon emissions grew 7.5 percent annually between 1997 and 2010. But provincial statistics show an 8.5 percent growth rate during that period. “Emissions calculated on the basis of the two publicly available official energy data sets differ by 1.4 gigatonnes for 2010. The figure is equivalent to Japan’s annual CO2 emissions, the world’s fourth largest emitter, with 5 percent of the global total,” the report says.

The authors of the report propose two potential explanations for the gap. First, they suggest that coal mining and washing carried out by many small firms in poor regions of the country are not equipped with the proper resources to keep accurate consumption records. According to the report, 31 percent of coal produced in China in 2009 was done so by small enterprises using outdated technologies. “Coal washing and manufacturing are the main contributors to the inconsistency of coal consumption statistics,” lead author Dabo Guan, a senior lecturer at the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds University, told GHG Monitor. “About 70 percent of the gap comes from coal consumption.” The second possible explanation discussed in the report is that local authorities may pressure statistics departments into over-reporting consumption data to match Gross Domestic Product growth—a number used to gauge the success of the government agencies.

Chinese Inventory Systems a ‘Work in Progress’

But the significant difference in numbers could reflect improper counting and sampling errors in the system rather than data tampering or a lack of resources at small firms, according to Deborah Seligsohn, principal advisor for the China Climate Energy and Pollution Program at the World Resources Institute. It is difficult for provinces to monitor energy flow, Seligsohn said, which may have resulted in double-counting. “I think some people have drawn the wrong conclusions. I think what it shows is the range of uncertainty in reporting.” she told GHG Monitor. “The conclusion you can reach is that there’s a margin of error in the numbers. The Chinese inventory systems are still a work in progress and this indicates they still have work to do. And they know that.” The authors are working on a follow-up study to quantify the range of uncertainty and determine possible ways to gather more accurate emissions data, Guan said.