If the world is to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius no new unabated fossil energy infrastructure can be built after 2017, Oxford University researchers said in a new report. “Even under the very optimistic assumption that other sectors reduce emissions in line with a 2C target, no new emitting electricity infrastructure can be built after 2017 for this target to be met, unless other electricity infrastructure is retired early or retrofitted with carbon capture technologies,” according to the report, published in the journal Applied Energy.
The report examines the lifetime of fossil energy generation facilities. Factoring in how much CO2 a plant will emit and comparing that amount with the carbon budget – how much CO2 can be emitted to stay below the 2-degree limit – the researchers developed what they term the “2-degree C capital stock.”
“The implications for energy policy of this concept are significant. Once the 2[-degree]C capital stock for the electricity sector has been reached, all new additions to the stock of generating infrastructure need to be net zero emissions to meet the 2[-degree]C target with 50 [percent] probability, without subsequent large-scale deployment of carbon capture technologies or without the premature stranding of energy sector assets,” according to the paper.
