As the Air Force considers extending the life of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, it should strongly look at keeping the ICBM in service past 2030 through incremental upgrades, according to a recently released study authored by the RAND Corp. The study, titled “The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force,” notes that previous incremental upgrades have already proven able to extend the service life, and would serve as a “relatively inexpensive” way to retain current ICBM capabilities and a solid alternative to an all-new ICBM system that it suggests could cost twice or three times as much as incremental modernization. The Air Force is slated to soon undertake an Analysis of Alternatives for a new ICBM. “The only viable argument for developing and fielding an alternative would therefore have to be requirements-driven,” the report said. “Options would be relevant only insofar as warfighting and deterrence demands push ICBM requirements beyond what an incrementally modernized Minuteman III can offer.”
According to the report, estimates of the 39-year lifecycle costs for an incrementally modernized Minuteman III would be $60 to $90 billion, while a new ICBM would range from $84 billion to $125 billion. Rail-mobile or road-mobile versions of the ICBM would cost between $124 billion and $219 billion, the study suggests.
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