A new report from the nongovernmental Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) suggests confidence-building and transparency measures to prevent miscalculations between Russia and the West, and thereby reduce nuclear risk, in light of current political tensions and the deteriorating U.S.-Russian relationship.
The recommendations in NTI’s Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region are intended “to ensure that we avoid the worst kind of catastrophe: a nuclear incident involving NATO and Russian forces,” by preventing military accidents, enhancing predictability, and building confidence, it said.
The organization recommended resuming military-to-military communication between the two countries on matters of strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction, noting that NATO suspended all technical-level interactions with Russia in 2014, the same year the U.S. and Russia terminated most of their military-to-military contact after the Ukraine conflict began.
“Dialogue should never be seen as a sign of weakness—it is essential for nuclear risk reduction to protect our citizens,” the report said. “Military-to-military discussions should be at the top of the list of near-term steps to reduce risk.”
The report also said the U.S. and Russia should “address concerns about the deployment of nuclear-capable ballistic missile systems and missile defense systems in Europe,” noting the U.S. deployment of the Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System in Romania earlier this year and Russia’s deployment of short-range, nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad as threatening moves for the other side.
It also advised against incorporating nuclear forces into military exercises to avoid the perception of readiness for nuclear confrontation, and to establish a high-level channel of communication on strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction
Other recommendations to prevent military accidents or miscalculation between two sides include requiring military aircraft to fly with transponders turned on; agreeing on safe distance limitations for U.S. and Russian aircraft and ships to avoid the risk of collision; reducing notification and observation thresholds for military exercises to offer predictability on the intentions of those drills; reaffirming the norm against fighting a nuclear war, particularly on the presidential level; and ceasing provocative nuclear rhetoric that fosters distrust.
