Chris Schneidmiller
NS&D Monitor
11/6/2015
A National Nuclear Security Administration program to identify potential nuclear proliferation threats in future years has multiple limitations that could undermine its effectiveness, the Government Accountability Office said in a report issued on Oct. 30.
The “Over the Horizon” (OTH) program under the NNSA Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN) was initiated in 2010 to determine nuclear and radiological dangers over a five- to 10-year period, according to the report. It is part of a broader agency effort to prevent nuclear or “dirty bomb” strikes against the United States.
The program uses a number of methods, including interviews, trend workshops, analysis of the literature addressing proliferation threats, and peer reviews in which issue experts assess OTH findings. Among the threats and trends cited by OTH, according to Department of Energy documents, are growing outputs of special nuclear materials, including in regions of concern; increasing use of atomic energy and radiological materials; sophisticated smuggling operations; and insiders with access to nuclear technology, material, or know-how.
The GAO, though, questioned how rigorous NNSA was in conducting the threat assessment program.
“Although NNSA used established methods, the way NNSA implemented them had several limitations. For example, NNSA officials did not document the rationale for selecting individuals for structured interviews to show that those selected provided a balanced range of views and were sufficiently knowledgeable,” the GAO found.
Peer reviews also failed to meet established standards, according to the report. Agency personnel failed to follow set standards to document the findings of peer reviews, congressional auditors said.
“These limitations raise concerns about the quality of the analyses produced, and about the usefulness of the OTH initiative, as it has been implemented so far, as a planning tool in NNSA’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN),” the GAO said.
While the Over the Horizon program was intended to help guide NNSA organizational and strategic planning, the level to which it contributed is not clear, the report says. There was no paperwork or clear connections between OTH and the reduction of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation offices from five to four early this year, according to GAO: “Instead, NNSA officials told GAO that the OTH initiative was one of several sources that informed the reorganization and that there were other reasons for it, including consolidating similar functions to achieve efficiencies.” The role OTH played in development of a March 2015 agency strategic plan was also vague, GAO said.
The report calls for the semiautonomous Department of Energy agency to improve implementation of literature reviews, structured interviews, and other established methods of proliferation threat analysis.
In a letter attached to the report, NNSA Administrator Frank Klotz said the agency concurs with GAO’s recommendations for improving its assessment processes via better documentation and following established guidelines. He lauded the Over the Horizon program as a “valuable tool” in assisting the NNSA in analyzing proliferation threats and assisting the agency’s “organizational and strategic decision making."
The OTH program was crucial to both the reorganization of the Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation and to assessing global nuclear security in a new report laying out a plan to reducing worldwide nuclear threats, according to the NNSA chief.
“Drawing on experts internal and external to government, the initiative established an analytical basis to provide management with recommendations regarding the evolving nonproliferation and nuclear security threat environment, and potential policy and programmatic implication,” Klotz stated.
