Brian Bradley
NS&D Monitor
1/23/2015
The Congressional Budget Office on Jan. 22 released its 10-year future nuclear weapons cost estimate, which projects the Obama Administration’s plans for nuclear forces would cost $348 billion from 2015 to 2024, down $7 billion from an estimate released a year ago. “Although the two estimates are close, notable changes have occurred in both departments’ nuclear programs, with the result that cost projections have increased in some areas but have declined in others,” the report notes. Last year’s report looked at the 10-year window from 2014 to 2023. The Fiscal Year 2015 National Defense Authorization Act requires CBO to periodically update its estimate of the cost of nuclear forces, and this study is the first such estimate.
DoD, DOE and Categorical Breakdowns
Over the next 10 years, CBO estimates the Defense Department would spend about $227 billion on nuclear weapons, which is about $6 billion more than the last 10-year estimate for the department. DoD nuclear modernization plans are one year further in their ramp-up phases of modernization, the report states. “Those added costs would be partially offset by decreases in some support costs realized from DoD’s plans to reduce headquarters staffing as part of a departmentwide effort to lower costs for command and control,” the report adds. “A change in the plans for nuclear-related communications satellites also is expected to reduce 10-year costs.”
CBO also projects the Energy Department will spend about $121 billion, which is about $13 billion less than the 2013 estimate. The report suggests the decrease can mostly be explained by postponements and reductions in the scope of weapon modernization programs and infrastructure construction projects. CBO projects DoD and DOE will budget $160 billion for strategic nuclear delivery systems and weapons, $79 billion for nuclear laboratories, $52 billion for nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) and early-warning systems, and $8 billion for tactical nuclear delivery systems and weapons and supporting activities. The remaining $49 billion coincides with past growth rates of nuclear weapons costs, the report notes. CBO estimates nuclear force costs compose about 5 to 6 percent of the Administration’s planned defense budget over the next 10 years.
However, the nuclear weapons cost report notes two key omissions: First, it does not account for any nuclear force changes brought on by initiatives announced by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in November to address issues raised in the independent Nuclear Enterprise Review. Second, in contrast with the last nuclear weapons cost study, it does not account for costs associated with retired weapon dismantlement, environmental cleanup, nonproliferation objectives, arms control compliance or ICBM defense.
SSBNs Occupy Biggest Segment
Ballistic missile submarines occupy the biggest segment of the 10-year cost estimate for nuclear delivery systems, with DoD projected to give $75 billion and DOE estimated to give $8 billion to Ohio-class and Ohio-class Replacement programs, equating to an $83 billion total that is $1 billion more than the 2013 estimate. The difference can primarily be explained by the Ohio-class replacement program’s shift into its production phase.
Bombers make up the next biggest portion of the estimate, with DoD projected to spend $32 billion and DOE expected to spend $7 billion over 10 years. The estimated DoD authorization is about $3 billion more than CBO’s last study largely because the department is approaching the planned acceleration phase of development of the long-range strike bomber, while the projected DOE cost is about $3 billion less than CBO’s last nuke study primarily because of a three-year delay in developing the long-range standoff weapon. Moreover, CBO estimates that DoD will spend $24 billion and DOE will spend $3 billion toward ICBMs over the next 10 years.
The roughly $26 billion combined budget projection is almost $3 billion more than the previous CBO 10-year estimate for ICBMs, although future ICBM plans are unclear, the study notes. “However, the most recent estimate comes with substantial uncertainty about DoD’s plans,” CBO states. “The department plans to operate the current Minuteman III ICBM through 2030. Although it is considering several options for fulfilling the ICBM’s mission after 2030—such as refurbishing existing missiles, developing a new missile, or both—its plans are not final.” In 2015 alone, it is estimated that DoD will spend $8.8 billion and DOE will spend $1.7 billion for the three delivery systems composing the triad. In support of these delivery systems, DOE is expected to contribute $79 billion over the next 10 years and $6.5 billion in 2015. DoD is also expected to spend $5.2 billion on NC3 capabilities this year.
Arms Control Community Reacts
Moments after the CBO report’s release, Kingston Reif, Director for Disarmament and Threat Reduction Policy at the Arms Control Association, in an ACA blog post said CBO’s reports bring fiscal perspective to the nuclear weapons modernization debate. “Whether one thinks the United States has too many or too few nuclear weapons, it is no longer possible to hide from their immense cost,” he wrote. Reif also called for lawmakers to require the Pentagon and DOE to provide life-cycle cost estimates for existing and planned nuclear weapons, asserting that Congress could benefit from a clearer long-term view of nuclear weapon costs.
