Morning Briefing - May 07, 2019
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May 07, 2019

Markey Bill Would Codify New START Limits if Treaty Lapses in 2021

By ExchangeMonitor

Noted anti-nuclear Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) has introduced legislation that would legally cap U.S.-deployed long-range nuclear warheads at New START levels by mostly prohibiting funding for deployments beyond the limits set by the arms control treaty with Russia.

Markey introduced the bill Friday and posted a copy of the 18-page measure, the “Save Arms Control and Verification Efforts Act of 2019,” or “SAVE Act,” on his website.

Markey’s bill also would require an unclassified report on the benefit of ditching New START, which limits the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads on a total of no more than 700 fielded intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and heavy bombers.

The Donald Trump administration and Russian President Vladimir Putin may agree to extend the accord into 2026. If they do not, the treaty will expire on Feb. 5, 2021.

Trump has said he favors a three-way warhead-cap treaty that constrains the U.S., Russia, and China. On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it would not negotiate such a treaty, media reported. That same day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a trilateral accord may be “too ambitious in the short term.”

Under the Markey bill, if the Trump administration lets New START die, the White House would have 90 days from the treaty’s expiration date to prepare a report explaining “why New START has not been extended.”

Conceivably sooner than that, 180 days after Markey’s bill becomes law, the director of national intelligence would have to submit a report to Congress with an unclassified summary explaining how the U.S. would collect intelligence about Russian nuclear programs absent the inspection powers granted by New START.

The Department of Energy would also have to weigh in with a 10-year cost estimate for a “a nuclear sustainment and modernization plan that does and does not anticipate the continued existence of the New START Treaty, including uploading warheads previously withdrawn from service,” the bill reads.

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