Coal, currently the world’s No. 2 energy source after liquid fuels, is projected to be surpassed by natural gas by 2030, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its annual International Energy Outlook. “Coal is the world’s slowest-growing energy source, rising by 0.6 [percent] per year through 2040,” according to the report.
Coal also appears set to lose footing in the energy market to renewable energy. “By 2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28 [percent] -29 [percent]) of world electricity generation—a significant change from 2012, when coal provided 40 [percent] of all power generation,” according to the EIA.
Of the top three coal-consuming countries – China, the U.S., and India – only India is projected to increase use of coal throughout the projection period to 2040. “China currently accounts for almost half of the world’s coal consumption, but a slowing economy and plans to implement policies to address air pollution and climate change contribute to declining coal use in China in the later years of the projection,” according to the report.
In the U.S. portion of the analysis, EIA found that coal use should decline even without implementation of the Clean Power Plan carbon emissions standards for existing coal-fired power plants, which are currently on hold due to a Supreme Court stay. However, “[i]nclusion of the CPP substantially lowers coal use in the United States from the level projected in the IEO2016 Reference case,” the report specifies.
