Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
11/14/2014
While coal will account for roughly 25 percent of the global energy mix in 2040, the United States’ reliance on the fuel will decrease by that time, according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2014, released this week. “By 2040, the world’s energy supply mix divides into four almost-equal parts: oil, gas, coal and low-carbon sources,” the document says. However, “policy choices and market developments that bring the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand down to just under three-quarters in 2040 are not enough to stem the rise in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which grow by one-fifth,” the study says. “While coal is abundant and its supply secure, its future use is constrained by measures to tackle pollution and reduce CO2 emissions. Global coal demand grows by 15 [percent] to 2040, but almost two-thirds of the increase occurs over the next ten years.”
The report finds that the United States will quickly fall behind other countries in coal use. “Demand declines in the [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development], including the United States, where coal use for electricity generation plunges by more than one-third. India overtakes the United States as the world’s second biggest coal consumer before 2020, and soon after surpasses China as the largest importer,” the report says, later noting that “adoption of high-efficiency coal-fired generation technologies, and of carbon capture and storage in the longer term, can be a prudent strategy to ensure a smooth transition to a low carbon power system, while reducing the risk that capacity is idled before recovering its investment costs.”