Nuclear forces worldwide in 2018 declined by roughly 4% over the course of the year, or by 600 weapons, to 13,865, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in its latest annual yearbook on nuclear weapons.
The U.S. and Russia, which have more nuclear weapons than the rest of the world’s seven nuclear-armed states combined, drove the increase by performing treaty-required disarmaments before a Feb. 5, 2018, deadline, the institute said.
By 2018, Washington and Moscow had each reduced their strategic nuclear forces to no more than 1,550 deployed warheads: the limit prescribed by the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) that went into effect in 2011. The warheads may be deployed on 700 intercontinental- and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers; and 800 deployed and nondeployed long-range launchers.
As of January 2019, the U.S. in total had 1,750 deployed warheads, while Russia had 1,600. New START only limits strategic warheads: loosely speaking, large warheads that can destroy much more than military forces on a battlefield.
Meanwhile, the Swedish institute said, China, India, and Pakistan are all bulking up their nuclear capabilities.
“‘India and Pakistan are expanding their military fissile material production capabilities on a scale that may lead to significant increases in the size of their nuclear weapon inventories over the next decade,’ wrote Shannon Kile, director of the institute’s nuclear disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation program.
China had 290 deployed nuclear warheads in January 2019, compared with 280 in 2018, the institute estimated. India had between 130 and 140 warheads, level with the prior year. Pakistan had between 150 and 160, up from between 140 and 150 in 2018.
The institute also estimated North Korea had between 20 and 30 warheads as of January 2019, up from between 10 and 20 warheads in 2018. However, “Figures for North Korea are uncertain,” the report says.
Finally, the report observed that “all nuclear weapon-possessing states continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals.”
The latest nuclear arms report is the 50th from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
