The Departments of Energy and Defense should better explain their 10-year nuclear deterrent modernization budget estimates and address future affordability concerns, the Government Accountability Office said in a newly released report.
The GAO examined the DOD and DOE’s fiscal 2017 joint report, which places the total cost of the two Cabinet agencies’ nuclear modernization plans at nearly $342 billion through fiscal 2026. The Pentagon represents roughly $234 billion of that total, while the DOE’s portion accounts for $107.8 billion. The Energy Department estimated in that joint report that modernization would cost $49.4 billion from fiscal 2017 to 2021, and $58.4 billion from fiscal 2022 to 2026; the majority of this would go toward stockpile and infrastructure activities, the GAO noted.
Congressional auditors said DOE’s nuclear modernization cost estimates might exceed its projections in internal funding plans for some major programs, raising affordability concerns – a problem the GAO has identified in other recent reports.
Specifically, the Energy Department’s low-range cost estimates for the W76-1, B61-12, W80-4, and Interoperable Warhead-1 life-extension programs, as well as the W88 Alteration 370 program, exceeded the budget estimates for some fiscal years in the joint report. The GAO in April noted, for example, that estimates for the W76-1 life extension program exceed existing budget estimates by $5.9 million in fiscal 2017, $57 million in fiscal 2019, and $80.5 million in fiscal 2020. This issue could lead to funding shortfalls for those programs in the long term, and may be exacerbated by potential cost increases in the future, the GAO said.
The GAO also said it could not verify that the Defense Department’s nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) budget estimates were consistent with its internal funding plans, because the Pentagon “does not describe how it selects program elements, determines its weighted analysis ratios, or differentiates methodologies for some funding streams” for those systems, which are projected to cost $40.5 billion over 10 years.
The NC3 system includes various components based on land, in air, and in space, to maintain a connection between the president and the nuclear forces and ensure reliable communications regarding nuclear events, ultimately providing the commander-in-chief with a way to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
The report recommended the Defense Department explain its methodology in preparing NC3 system cost estimates to increase transparency in its future budget reporting, and did not make any recommendations to the Energy Department; it has already asked the DOE to address these concerns through an affordability assessment for future iterations of the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan. The Pentagon agreed with the GAO’s recommendations and said it would provide greater detail on methodology in future joint reports.
