The future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty continues to weigh on top U.S. military officials as they consider options for responding to Russia’s violation of the bilateral agreement.
Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the Defense Department’s budget posture that Moscow’s breach of the INF Treaty is one of the reasons the United States must proceed with the $1 trillion modernization of its nuclear arsenal.
The INF Treaty prohibits the fielding of ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with flight ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. U.S. officials determined earlier this year that Russia has deployed such a missile.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) noted during the hearing that if China were a member nation to the treaty, it would ban over 90 percent of that nation’s missiles. Some observers have previously suggested multilateralizing the accord to bring in other such actors.
“So the situation that we face is that the INF Treaty gets China a lethal advantage over American forces in the Pacific; Russia is outright ignoring the INF Treaty in Europe; we have no matching response to either of those threats, and even if we did it would be illegal because we are literally the only nation in the world that restrains itself from developing intermediate-range cruise missiles. Is that right?” Cotton asked.
“It is,” Dunford said.
The administration is weighing potential responses in its Nuclear Posture Review process, which will set U.S. nuclear arms policy for up to a decade. Russia, meanwhile, has accused the United States of violating the treaty, which suggests a resolution to these compliance issues remains out of reach.
Analysts have long argued that a failure to resolve it, however, could jeopardize the entire bilateral arms control regime, including further nuclear arsenal reductions between the two countries.
One of the challenges for the Trump administration will involve determining the future of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty past its 2021 expiration; U.S. officials have remained generally supportive of the agreement that caps both countries’ nuclear arsenals.
Still, Defense Secretary James Mattis on Tuesday hinted at difficulties in re-engaging with Russia, saying “there are very modest expectations for finding areas of cooperation” with the country.
