FEDERAL REPORT WARNS OF 10-DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE

CCS One of ‘Very Few Potential Options’ For Reducing Emissions, Report Says 

Lindsay Kalter
GHG Monitor
1/18/13

A draft report on climate change released by a federal advisory panel late last week warns of possible global temperature increases of 5-to-10 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming decades if the world’s current greenhouse gas emissions trajectory is not soon altered. The more than 1,000-page National Climate Assessment, released through the inter-agency U.S. Global Change Research Program, concludes that “evidence for a changing climate has strengthened considerably” since the release of the last edition of the report in 2009 and that that sea levels, temperatures and extreme weather events will continue to increase if fossil fuels proceed to burn at their current rate. “The amount of warming by the end of the century is projected to correspond closely to the cumulative global emissions of greenhouse gases up to that time,” the report states, with an increase in 3-to-5 degrees Fahrenheit under a lower emissions scenario and a 5-to-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a higher emissions scenario.

The report projects that as global temperatures increase as predicted, sea levels will rise between one and four feet by 2100. It adds that the last century saw an eight-inch rise after roughly 2,000 years of little change, and that the rate of rise in the previous 20 years has doubled. This, in combination with an increase storm incidence and precipitation, put the U.S. coastal areas in significant danger, according to the report. “In the U.S., millions of people and many of the nation’s assets related to military readiness, energy, transportation, commerce and ecosystems are located in areas at risk of coastal flooding because of sea level rise and storm surge,” the report states. It also warns of accelerated ocean acidification that is a result of increased CO2 emissions, given that the world’s oceans absorb about a quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere.

CCS One of “Very Few Potential Options” for Reducing CO2, report says

Although the report highlights the importance of climate mitigation strategies, it does not evaluate the effectiveness of any technologies or potential policies. However, the draft does assert that carbon capture and sequestration “represents one of very few potential options for reducing atmospheric CO2.” CCS could reduce emissions from coal- and natural gas-fired plants by 90 percent, the report says, which would allow fossil fuels to remain in use while lowering emissions. But the report notes the technology’s steep costs. “CCS substantially increases the cost of building and operating a power plant. In addition to the upfront capital expense, the CCS process requires about 15 percent to 30 percent of the plant output to operate. Substantial amounts of water are also used to separate CO2 from emissions,” it says. “However, the technology is just emerging.”

Congress Reacts to Draft, Remains Divided

The report comes during a time of Congressional stagnancy on climate measures, as members of the Democrat-controlled Senate and Republican-controlled House remain divided and preoccupied with lingering fiscal uncertainty. Despite the growing number of reports warning that the climate change will rapidly continue in the absence of major carbon legislation, imminent Congressional action seems unlikely as the debt ceiling and budget sequestration concerns remain at the forefront of the agenda.

However, some members of Congress who have historically been in favor of mitigation efforts this week cited the draft as a reason to act on climate change within the year. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said in a statement that the report “sends a warning to all of us: we must act in a comprehensive fashion to reduce carbon pollution or expose our people and communities to continuing devastation from extreme weather events and their aftermath.” House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), who spearheaded cap-and-trade legislation during President Obama’s first term, called the report’s findings a “three-alarm fire.” “Climate change is already causing widespread disruption across the nation,” Waxman said in a statement. “We are in deep trouble if we don’t act forcefully this year.”

At the same time, members of Congress on the opposite end of the political spectrum stood firm in their skepticism of human-induced climate change. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), the new chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, said in Jan. 11 statement that he plans to vet climate science in the new Congress. He asserted that scientists “still don’t know for certain” the extent to which each of these contributes to climate change.

The federal draft report, which has more than 240 contributing authors, is open for comment and will technically become a federal document when the advisory committee submits it to the National Science Technology Council on Oct. 7. The draft is expected to be finalized Jan. 30, 2014.