Delays in producing new plutonium pits at two National Nuclear Security Administration sites are “very disturbing,” given the need to modernize nearly every element of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in coming decades, a former NNSA policy director said Wednesday.
“During the Cold War, the U.S. produced up to 2,000 warhead pits per year at the now-shuttered Rocky Flats facility in Colorado,” John Harvey, whose last stint in government was about a decade ago, as the principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs, said during an online forum hosted by the non-government Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center.
“It may be until 2040 that we achieve production capability, and that would be very disturbing,” Harvey said.
NNSA’s initial plan, which matches deadlines prescribed by Congress, was to begin building 30 pits per year at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico by 2026 and another 50 at a new Plutonium Processing Facility at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina for a combined total of 80 pits per year by 2030. The agency now says it likely will not meet either deadline.
Achieving a 30-pit-per-year capacity at Los Alamos will occur closer to 2030 and the 50-per-year rate at Savannah River now will not arrive until the mid-2030s and possibly beyond, Harvey said. NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby and other senior officials have said as much in testimony before Congress this year.
“Delayed warhead deliveries to DoD risks degraded deterrence and NNSA should ask its experts to explore extensively whether some prudent adjustment, for example in the current approach to managing program safety and security risks, could speed things along,” Harvey said.
A capability to produce 80 pits per year, could be stretched to 100 or 120 with overtime work and double shifts, Harvey said. Plutonium pits are thought to have a reliable service life of between 80 and 100 years and many of the existing pits are between 40 and 60 years old, he said.
“That’s getting close to the point where you might need to be and you might be able to achieve that in an emergency,” Harvey said. “Known production needs cannot be the only criteria for pits. Some excess capacity is necessary to hedge unknown contingencies including unanticipated technical problems. Eighty pits per year thus is a judgment call and not driven totally by known requirements. Eighty per year, by the way, in my view accepts considerable risk and is at the lower limit of my comfort level.”
