There hasn’t been much catharsis this cycle for political junkies within the Energy Department’s nuclear complex who want to see some of the lightning from the presidential race trickle down to contests that may affect them professionally.
Neither Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton nor Republican candidate Donald Trump have said much about the DOE nuclear complex (arguing about who should be trusted with nuclear weapons is not really the same thing).
What we do know is the candidates are not exactly tripping over their own feet to endorse a combined defense-commercial deep-geological waste space. The Las Vegas Sun newspaper got the would-be POTUSes closest to an answer on that subject: Clinton said she would probably not consider reviving the Yucca Mountain project in Nevada, while Trump kept us all in suspense by promising to weigh in on Yucca later.
But in the meantime, every representative on the Hill and one-third of senators are running for re-election this year. What about them? Do any of those races have the potential to shake up business as usual when it comes to DOE cleanup in the next administration?
Hard to say.
Historical results give us some idea what to expect (unless things change drastically and suddenly) but the future is murky. Poll clearing house RealClearPolitics.com has taken virtually no notice whatsoever of races involving lawmakers from states and districts dealing firsthand with the gritty, legacy nuclear cleanup handled by DOE’s Office of Environmental Management.
To be sure, you can find a poll devoted races including household names for the EM-focused, if you look hard enough. Yet caveat reader: not every public-opinion survey is as scientifically rigorous as we here at Weapons Complex Monitor would prefer.
One exception to the dearth of credible polling for EM-relevant races is the contest for the seat held by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio): a constant and vocal ally of cleanup for the former gaseous diffusion plant at DOE’s Portsmouth Site near Piketon, Ohio. Even politically savvy election watchers on the opposite side of the aisle from Portman have lauded his electoral shrewdness this cycle.
Despite distancing himself from Trump while seeking re-election in a blue-collar swing state populated predominantly by white voters no Republican has ever won the White House without, Portman commands a double-digit lead in his Senate race with former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, according to polls by Quinnipiac University, Emerson University, Suffolk University, and CNN/ORC International.
After that, it gets tougher to find a race near to the nuclear complex that has elicited much interest, or many polls, this season.
There’s Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho): a pro-nuclear guy who founded the Senate Nuclear Waste Cleanup Caucus more than a decade ago and, in 2014, put his name on a letter from six GOP senators who wanted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to release safety evaluation reports for Yucca Mountain. The lawmakers may have thought this would aid in reversing the Obama administration’s decision to effectively cancel Yucca.
Crapo’s 2016 re-election bid proved interesting enough to provoke a single poll deemed credible enough for RealClearPolitics to post: an Oct. 25 survey by Emerson University, which found Crapo was crushing Democratic challenger Jerry Sturgill by 33 points in the reliably Republican state that is home to the Idaho National Laboratory (and more than 20,000 containers of transuranic waste awaiting shipment out of state).
Sort of a snooze.
If we expand our horizons to lawmakers who do not directly represent a DOE cleanup site but do hold some political sway over the agency, we could consider Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), chairwoman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. The panel has jurisdiction over DOE policy, and approves presidential nominations for posts including energy secretary and DOE assistant secretary for environmental management.
If Murkowski is in a horse race in 2016, she’s riding the only one with four legs. The Alaska native is dominating a six-way contest in the 49th state, leading her nearest competitor, Libertarian Joe Miller, by a factor of three, according to the only poll of the race vetted by RealClearPolitics. Moore Information surveyed Alaskan voters in late September and early October.
Similarly, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), perpetually on the warpath to protect whistleblowers at DOE’s Hanford Site in neighboring Washington state, is eclipsing his Republican opponent Mark Callahan by more than 15 points above the margin of error in the two polls RealClearPolitics vetted for that race. The surveys come from Gravis and KATU-TV/SurveyUSA.
Things get quieter still if you drill down and search the ReaclClearPolitics database for insight into, say, the race to replace the retired congressman whose district includes the former Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant. Zero, zilch, goose-egg for vetted polls in the Paducah race, in which Republican James Comer and Democrat Sam Gaskins are vying for the seat vacated by Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-Ky.) earlier this year after an ethics probe.
Whitfield made the occasional swipe at DOE for proposing budget cuts at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant. However, he was not an outspoken voice about DOE Environmental Management matters on the Hill in the same sense as, say, a Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), or a Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.).
Comer, the former state agriculture boss, is looking to rally after a failed campaign for governor.
Gaskins, a retired Marine and Iraq War veteran, is running on a steadfastly anti-Trump platform in a state where Trump has lately enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls over Clinton.
Of course, many more lawmakers around the nation have ties to the EM complex. Here, in alphabetical order by last name, is a list of some of the most conspicuous, along with any cleanup projects in or near their states and districts. Though credible polls about their latest races are scarce, all of these lawmakers — with one exception — won their last bid for re-election handily, according to historical state election data compiled by the website Ballotpedia:
- Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), Savannah River Site.
- Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), Oak Ridge Reservation.
- Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant.
- Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), ranking member, House Appropriations energy and water subcommittee. The Portsmouth Site is in her state, but not her district.
- Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Los Alamos National Laboratory.
- Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), Hanford Site. After a blanket primary where all comers from all parties vied for the two spots in the general election, Newhouse will defend his seat against fellow Republican Clint Didier. In 2014, Newhouse defeated a different Repubican challenger in the general election and won only about 50 percent of the vote.
- Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), Waste Isolation Pilot Plant.
- Rep. Tom Reed – (D-N.Y.), West Valley Demonstration Project.
- Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chairman of the House Appropriations energy and water subcommittee. Idaho National Laboratory.
- Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Energy and Commerce environment and economy subcommittee. Separations Process Research Unit.
- Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), Savannah River Site.
And in the Senate:
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).
- Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Paducah Site.
- Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Portsmouth Site.
- Sen, Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Idaho National Laboratory.
- Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), Savannah River Site.
- Sen. Patty Murray (D- Wash), Hanford Site.
- Sen. Ron Wyden (R-Ore.), Hanford Site. The Columbia River, adjacent to the Hanford Site, divides Washington State and Oregon.
