After the expiration of the current Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), ongoing development of the long-range strike bomber (LRS-B) and replacement of 14 Ohio-class submarines and could draw would-be funding from other areas of the post-FY 2019 defense budget, according to Todd Harrison, senior fellow of defense budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Harrison based his conclusions on his Analysis of the FY 2015 Defense Budget released last Thursday. While the most recent (2013) Defense Department Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) omits the programs, the Navy and Air Force have publicly identified them as top priorities.
The CSBA report estimates the total costs of the Ohio replacement and LRS-B in FY15 dollars at $90 billion and $73 billion, respectively. Along with the $351-billion total estimated cost of manufacturing 2,443 F-35’s, the sub and bomber round out the three most expensive current DoD acquisition programs. While Harrison said it is too far in advance to predict specific cuts, he said that decision-makers often target big programs like the F-35. “The F-35 program is already in the program of record and it’s taking up a lot of the budget space, so I think that is one of the tradeoffs the services will have to consider is, do they buy the full quantity of the F-35 or do they buy it at the rate they’re planning on buying it?” Harrison said. “Or, if they decide to leave the program alone, then they have to make offsetting costs elsewhere in their program and they’ve got a lot of other important priorities as well.”
Speaking generally and alluding to entries in CSBA’s Weapon-Systems Factbook, Harrison also identified the $92.5 billion Virginia-class special operations and cruise missile submarine, the $41.8-billion C130-J cargo aircraft, the $49.5-billion modernization of KC-46 aerial refueling tankers as possible reduction casualties. The report derived its cost estimates from DoD officials’ public statements. The LRS-B and Ohio-class replacement are projected to cost $11.4 billion and about $10 billion, respectively, over the current FYDP.
