DOD CAPE STUDY SUPPORTS MODULAR Pu STRATEGY, REVEALS INCREASED UPF ESTIMATE

A modular plutonium strategy planned for Los Alamos National Laboratory is expected to be a significantly cheaper alternative to the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Replacement-Nuclear Facility, but the price tag for the Uranium Processing Facility could be growing, according to a recent analysis by the Department of Defense’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation group. The CAPE recently completed an analysis of both projects and has briefed Congress on the results, which would appear to affirm the agency’s plan to meet the nation’s plutonium needs at Los Alamos through smaller facilities but raises questions about the affordability of UPF, which is planned for the Y-12 National Security Complex. NW&M Monitor has learned that a CAPE business case analysis has suggested the cost of the modular plutonium strategy is less than $2 billion, well below the $3.7 to $5.8 billion price tag for CMRR-NF, but a CAPE estimate for UPF has suggested that the cost could be between $10 and $12 billion. The current estimate for the facility tops out at $6.5 billion, and the CAPE estimate is believed to be for phase one of the project, which involves relocating uranium production capabilities currently at Y-12’s 9212 complex. The CAPE study is believed to have used historical cost data to project the cost per square foot of UPF.