The Defense Department has formally begun preparing a new Nuclear Posture Review for the Donald Trump administration with the participation of interagency partners, including the State Department and the National Nuclear Security Administration.
In a brief statement, the Pentagon on Monday said Defense Secretary James Mattis “directed the commencement of the review, which will be led by the deputy secretary of defense and the vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and include interagency partners.”
Trump in January signed a national security memorandum directing the development of a new Nuclear Posture Review that will establish the nation’s nuclear arms policy for up to a decade. The last review was issued in 2010 under then-President Barack Obama.
Gen. Paul Selva has served since 2015 as vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Robert Work, an Obama administration holdover, remains in his position as deputy secretary of defense. The White House announced last month it intends to nominate for the role Patrick Shanahan, currently Boeing’s senior vice president of supply chain and operations. Shanahan previously served as senior vice president of the aerospace giant’s airplane programs and, before that, vice president and general manager of the company’s missile defense systems.
A senior National Security Council official said last month that an interagency team would review every piece of U.S. nuclear arms policy, including the former administration’s broad end goal of a world without nuclear weapons. Other issues to be addressed in the NPR include the U.S.-Russian New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and a potential response to Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
A Department of State official said this week the agency is one of those partners participating in the review, but did not offer further detail about the department’s contribution. Its arms control and international security bureaus are responsible for interagency policy work covering nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, negotiation of arms control and disarmament accords, and verification of those agreements with other nations.
The NNSA also confirmed this week it is participating in the review process. The agency is responsible for certifying the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, conducting life-extension programs on aging warheads, and carrying out various nonproliferation projects to safeguard and eliminate nuclear and radiological materials worldwide, among other missions.
U.S. Strategic Command is “committed to fully supporting” the review, spokesman Capt. Brian Maguire said by email. He declined to provide further detail.
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein said in February the review would consider the weapons and nuclear yields necessary for the U.S. arsenal, suggesting that future national policy could include an increased number of lower-yield nuclear weapons. Although specific policy decisions remain to be made, observers say the review will likely address modernization of all three legs of the nuclear triad.
The price tag for modernization has been projected at $1 trillion over three decades, though the Congressional Budget Office is evaluating that estimate, Bloomberg reported this week.
In an analysis this week, Obama administration National Security Council arms control director Jon Wolfsthal said the Nuclear Posture Review process should look hard at reducing or even eliminating its ICBM force rather than moving ahead with development of the next-generation Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent. The land-based ballistic missiles are “the most vulnerable and least essential components of the US nuclear arsenal,” according to Wolfsthal.
The review “will ensure we will continue to maintain a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent,” Lt. Cmdr. Courtney Hillson, a spokeswoman for the Defense Department, said by email. She added that the review “will not conclude before the President has reviewed and approved its findings and recommendations.”
The Defense Department said it will submit a final report to Trump by the end of the year. A Senate Armed Services Committee staffer, Rob Soofer, is rumored to be under consideration for a Pentagon job that would give him significant responsibility in guiding the review process.
House Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said Monday he hopes the review will include “a thorough assessment of policy options that would allow us to avoid a costly and dangerous nuclear arms race; and that it properly analyzes the enormous risks inherent in lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.”
“It is time to rethink what the priorities should be for a strong yet affordable nuclear arsenal, rather than embarking on a trillion-dollar modernization plan that will drag us into perilous nuclear competition and drain much-needed resources from conventional weapon systems and nondefense programs,” Smith said in a prepared statement.
