By Rich Abott
Defense Daily
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assesses Russia “probably is not adhering” fully to a multilateral prohibition on nuclear testing, the agency’s director said Wednesday.
Speaking at a Hudson Institute event, Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley Jr. argued Russia’s development of new nuclear warhead designs and overall stockpile management is enhanced by even low-yield nuclear testing.
“The United States believes that Russia probably is not adhering to the nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the zero-yield standard,” Ashley said. “Our understanding of nuclear weapon development leads us the believe Russia’s testing activities would help it improve its nuclear weapon capabilities. The United States, by contrast, has forgone such benefits by upholding a zero-yield standard.”
Pressed by the Wall Street Journal, which reported DIA’s assessment prior to Ashley’s address, the general would not say whether Mosocow has actually conducted a low-yield nuclear test at its subcritical testing facility at Novaya Zemlya. Ashley would say only that “I believe they have the capability to do that.”
Russia signed and ratified the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which aims to ban all nuclear explosive testing. The 184-nation treaty has not entered force, as eight of the 44 “Annex 2” nations including the United States have not provided the necessary ratification. The U.S., however, voluntarily refrains from yield testing and performs only subcritical tests — explosive plutonium experiments that lack even the low yield of so-called hydronuclear tests.
Arms control advocates on Wednesday roundly criticized Ashley’s assessment on Twitter, accusing the general of resurrecting old worries of Russian noncompliance to bolster the Donald Trump administration’s drive to replace current bilateral nuclear-weapon treaties such as New START with multilateral deals that would also limit Chinese nuclear weapon programs.
This is not news. There are people in the US intelligence community who have been arguing for more than two decades that Russia is conducting low-yield nuclear testing in violation of its obligations under the CTBT.https://t.co/om9DhIwVR9
— Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) May 29, 2019
Lewis pointed to a 2012 study from the U.S. National Academies in which a panel including a former director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a former U.S. Strategic Command commander opined that “it is unlikely that hydronuclear tests would enable Russia to develop new strategic capabilities outside of its nuclear-explosion test experience.”
High up in the Senate GOP leadership, Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) press shop retweeted the Journal’s story without comment.
The U.S. says Russia is likely conducting low-yield nuclear tests, in defiance of a test ban treaty https://t.co/Vp1bYuMo6p
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) May 29, 2019
Ashley was unwilling to characterize the kinds of low-yield tests Russia might be conducting.
“I can’t really quantify it, I just think from a strategic level it goes into the issue of adhering to the zero-yield compliance,” he said. “I think that really is the strategic part of it.”
Ashley said it makes sense for Russia to test while also upgrading nuclear warheads. “If you go beyond zero-yield, that gives you more of a sense that your designs are viable,” he said.
When asked if Russia shares the U.S. definition of a zero-yield standard in the treaty, he said “my understanding is they have not affirmed the language of zero-yield so there’s not an agreement to what that means.”
ExchangeMonitor staff in Washington contributed to this story, which first appeared in NS&D Monitor affiliate publication Defense Daily.
