Coal has played a significant role in China’s economic growth, but that growth has not come without consequence, and it is now time for the nation to deal with its coal problem, Xiaojie Xu, chief fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), suggested Tuesday. Simply turning away from coal altogether is not the only solution to the problem, Xu said.
“Today’s coal is quite dirty, but for the industry, we’re fully confident that coal can be clean,” Xu said. “Coal can be one type of clean energy source. … If we use the coal wisely, especially using the most advanced technology process, we can increase the coal power generation, coal efficiency, and reduce the emissions from the coal.”
Speaking at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, Xu laid out a vision of the energy future of China based on the latest edition of the World Energy China Outlook, an independent analysis conducted by CASS. The study contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s global energy outlook forecasts for the country as IWEP applies different assumptions to its analysis. IWEP assumes a different coal conversation ratio, GDP rate, and technology readiness than the IEA, suggesting the IEA’s assumptions do not fit China’s realities.
“There are different prospects between institutions. An interactive outlook is necessary for dialogues, cooperation, and governance,” according to Xu’s presentation.
The two studies come up with different predictions for the future of energy demand in the country. Under the IEA’s scenario, energy demand in the country continues to increase through 2030, though at a slower rate.
The IWEP assessment, however, paints a different picture. “We believe energy demand could be slowed down, could be peaked at the year around 2020, and almost maintain its current level until the 2030s,” Xu said.
The IEA scenario suggests a peak in coal consumption in China around 2025 while the IWEP scenario expects a peak by 2020.
A peak in coal is not enough, Xu suggested. “Coal now is at a peak. That is a good sign, a very good sign. However, we have to keep growing such momentum if we can make the coal cleaner,” he said.
Xu noted advancements in ultra-supercritical coal power generation and suggested that while carbon capture and storage holds great promise, it is not economically feasible at this time. “If we put CCUS on the existing power plants, we will immediately increase the core cost. That doesn’t make sense. It’s very impossible economically, so there is a close relationship between the efficiency and CCS deployment. … CCS will be possible once energy efficacy increases to a certain level.”
