Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
7/31/2015
The obligation to meet the United States’ commitment under the anticipated global climate agreement to be struck in Paris in December will fall upon future administrations, but presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s recently released climate plan comes up short, David Bookbinder, a partner at Element VI Consulting and former Sierra Club general counsel, told GHG Monitor this week.
Clinton’s plan contains little detail, but does lay out two measurable goals: the installation of more than half a billion solar panels throughout the nation by 2020 and an increase in renewable generation to 33 percent of total national energy generation by 2027. While these are ambitious targets of questionable feasibility, they still would not be enough to meet the country’s commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 percent under 2005 levels by 2025, according to Bookbinder’s initial calculations. “This has got some nice rhetoric in it, but there’s no detail, no explanation as to how either of these things will be accomplished,” Bookbinder said. Representatives from the Clinton campaign did not respond to requests for comment this week.
According to the Clinton climate plan, under current policy, renewable energy generation in 2027 will account for 16 percent of total national generation. The sum will rise to 25 percent of total generation with the implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s “Clean Power Plan” carbon emission standards for existing coal-fired power plants, according to the Clinton plan. Clinton then says through her climate agenda another 8 percent of total energy generation will come from renewables for a total of 33 percent renewable energy generation. “We’ll set a 10-year goal of generating enough renewable energy to power every single home in America,” Clinton says in a video released by her campaign early this week.
Taking these numbers at face value, the math still doesn’t add up, Bookbinder said. “Assuming that the Clean Power Plan does what it claims by 2025, and that Hillary’s statement that it will result in 25 percent renewable power is correct, then the question is whether another 8 percent increase in renewables would close the gap. 2013 power plant emissions were 2041 MMT [million metric tons], and 8 percent of that is another 163 MMT in reductions. But the gap we identified is 349 MMT, and so even 33 percent renewables leaves us well short of the 26 percent goal” of net greenhouse gas reduction, Bookbinder explained, noting a gap between the emissions reduction goal laid out in the U.S. commitment and the actual emissions reduction attainable through the measures cited the commitment.
Lack of Detail Raises Questions
Bookbinder also said the lack of detail in the Clinton climate plan makes it difficult to determine its feasibility. The document gives no indication under what authority Clinton intends to achieve these goals. “How does she believe this is possible? I have no idea. … I don’t see how that would be possible, what is the mechanism?” Bookbinder said, later adding “You can make up whatever numbers you like, the question is how do you actually accomplish them. You need a plan. There’s nothing there.”
Clinton’s campaign video suggests that more details of her plan will be provided as the presidential race progresses. “Over the next few months I will lay out a comprehensive agenda to meet the climate challenge and make America the world’s clean energy superpower,” she said.
Underlying Claims Questioned
Clinton’s claim that the Clean Power Plan, which requires states to develop action plans to meet state-specific federally set emissions reduction targets, would increase renewable generation to 25 percent of the national energy mix is also worth questioning, Bookbinder said. Because of the form of the rule, which will result in a different action plan for each state, it is impossible to predict how each state will go about meeting its goal. Some might choose not to significantly increase their renewable generation. “Nobody knows how there’s going to be compliance with the Clean Power Plan, so to say that it’s going to be 25 percent renewables, I have no idea where the number comes from or the [legitimacy] of it,” Bookbinder said.
