Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
11/13/2015
Carbon capture and storage technology has been slow to develop, but will play a role in efforts by developed nations to decarbonize in the future, according to the 2015 World Energy Outlook released this week by the International Energy Agency. “Rapid and widespread adoption of high-efficiency coal-fired generation technologies and designing plants to be suitable for modification to incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS) are becoming essential features of strategies to reconcile future coal use with global aspirations to tackle climate change,” the document says.
The report considers three scenarios, two of which would result in an increase in CCS deployment worldwide. The New Policies Scenario “takes into account the policies and implementing measures affecting energy markets that had been adopted as of mid-2015 (as well as the energy-related components of climate pledges in the run-up to COP21, submitted by 1 October), together with relevant declared policy intentions, even though specific measures needed to put them into effect may not have been adopted,” the report explains. The Current Policies Scenario, which provides minimal support for CCS, considers only policies enacted as of mid-2015. The 450 Scenario, the most stringent of the three, “depicts a pathway to the 2 °C climate goal that can be achieved by fostering technologies that are close to becoming available at commercial scale,” the document says.
Under the New Policies Scenario, new coal generation in developed countries would slow significantly, though a notable portion of the generation built would include a carbon capture system, the report suggests. “Out of the some 2100 gigawatts (GW) of new power generation capacity installed in OECD countries in the New Policies Scenario, only 5 [percent] is fueled by coal and of this 95 GW of coal-fired capacity additions 35 [percent] are fitted with CCS technology,” the report says.
The report further finds that one-third of coal-fired power plants currently in operation worldwide would be retired from 2015-2040. Most of the retired plants would be older subcritical facilities with high carbon emissions located in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. “In the New Policies Scenario, by 2040, generation from coal plants currently operational in OECD countries falls to around 40 [percent] of its level today. By 2040, electricity production from new coal plants, one-third of which are fitted with CCS, accounts for one-quarter of total coal-fired generation in the OECD,” according to the report.
CCS Not As Utilized in Developing Countries
The report notes, however, that as coal demand shrinks in the developed world, it will increase among developing nations. “Growth in non-OECD coal use was fairly subdued historically until the early 2000s. However, the surge in Chinese coal demand in the past decade resulted in the non-OECD region’s share of global demand rising from 53 [percent] in 2000 to 74 [percent] today. In the New Policies Scenario, this share reaches 86 [percent] by 2040, as coal is called upon to support the electrification and industrialisation of the economies of India and Southeast Asia,” the report finds.
While the increase in the percentage of coal plants with CCS in the developed world looks significant at first glance, due to the increase of coal demand in the developing world, the New Policies Scenario does not represent sufficiently significant support for CCS, the IEA said. “Soon after 2030, coal loses out to renewables as the world’s largest source of electricity generation; yet, it still underpins 30 [percent] of global electricity output by 2040. With less than 5 [percent] of global coal-fired power generation coming from plants equipped with CCS in 2040, the policies envisaged in the New Policies Scenario are not stringent enough to achieve deep decarbonisation and therefore do not trigger the CCS cost reductions needed for large-scale deployment.”
450 Scenario Sees Greater CCS Use
In the 450 scenario, world coal demand peaks this decade before declining by 33 percent by 2040 returning to early 2000s levels. “This large reduction in coal use stems from the policies that governments worldwide, but especially in China and OECD countries, adopt towards setting the energy system on track to have a 50 [percent] chance of keeping the long-term increase in the average global temperature to below 2 °C,” the report says. “By 2040 in the 450 Scenario, coal accounts for only 16 [percent] of the world’s energy mix and 12 [percent] of electricity output. CCS plays an important role in reducing emissions from coal-fired generation, with three-quarters of the coal-based power coming from plants equipped with CCS.”
