Brian Bradley
NS&D Monitor
3/6/2015
The Congressional Budget Office has released information supplementing its January nuclear weapons cost study for Fiscal Year 2015-2024, which shows defense costs for all three legs of the nuclear triad peaking in either 2022 or 2023. The study estimates total government spending on nuclear weapons at $348 billion during the 10-year period. National Nuclear Security Administration spending is expected to peak at the back end of the period as well. According to the study, ballistic missile submarines and bomber cost estimates peak in 2022 with combined Defense Department and NNSA expenses of $11.5 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively.
Intercontinental ballistic missile estimates peak in 2023 at $4.7 billion combined. Including combined DoD and NNSA spending from 2015 to 2024, SSBNs are projected to cost $83 billion, ICBMs are estimated at $26 billion, and bombers are expected to cost $40 billion. Including general DoD nuclear-related research and operations support activities, as well as tactical delivery systems and weapons, the CBO report estimated DoD will spend $146 billion on nuclear weapons over the study’s timespan. Overall DoD nuclear weapons spending is expected to spike in 2022 at $20 billion.
Modernization Outweighs Other Cost Categories
The supplementary data also shows nuclear triad modernization will cost most than operations and sustainment combined. The government is expected to spend $78.2 billion on modernization, compared with $47.8 billion for operations and $22.8 billion for sustainment from FY 2015-2024. Within modernization, SSBNs are expected to cost $45.7 billion over the next decade, more than bombers and ICBMs put together. Projected SSBN expenditures spike at $7.7 billion in 2022. The CBO pegs bomber costs at $20.9 billion and ICBM costs at $11.9 billion from FY 2015-2024.
NNSA Modernization Spending to Top Out at $11.1B in 2024
NNSA spending on the nuclear triad is expected to top out over the 10-year period at $11.1 billion in 2024. The report projects NNSA will spend $1.1 billion on stockpile services in FY 2015, steadily ramping up to $1.7 billion in FY 2024. Moreover, NNSA is expected to steadily increase its facilities and infrastructure spending over the 10-year period, from $2.1 billion at the outset to $3.2 billion at the conclusion. Total yearly NNSA and DoD spending on nuclear weapons is expected to top out at $35.6 billion in 2022, up from $23.9 billion at the outset before tailing off to $34.7 billion in 2024.
NC3 Bill Expected to be $52 Billion
DoD will foot the projected $52 billion total 10-year bill for nuclear command, control and communications (NC3). Yearly spending for the system is expected to remain fairly flat over the next decade, with the most dramatic rise occurring between FY 2019 and FY 2020. Annual NC3 spending is expected to jump from the low point of $4.8 billion to the pinnacle of $5.4 billion between the two years. The study estimates that DoD will spend $227 billion of the total $299 billion—or 76 percent—expected to be budgeted for U.S. nuclear weapons from FY 2015-2024. The report also adds in $49 billion to overall cost to account for historical growth factors.
