‘AMBIGUITY’ STILL EXISTS ON EXTENDED DETERRENCE IN EUROPE

While there is confidence in the U.S. extended deterrent in Europe, some “ambiguity and doubts” still remain, a European nuclear deterrence expert said Friday. “Nobody in Europe doubts that would the U.S. really be threatened in the field of nuclear deterrence that the U.S. has the weight and the will to use their weapons,” François Rivasseau of the Delegation of the European Union to the United States said at the Capitol Hill Club Friday. However, quoting Charles de Gaulle, he noted that doubt has always existed on potential changes in future Administrations. “You know that you can not promise that every president in the future from the United States will be in the position to make the same commitment, because in the future we may have a position where one U.S. president because of his internal policy constraints will not have the possibility of risking the existence of the United States to save France,” he said.

The deterrence value of conventional capabilities is also being considered, noted Oliver Meier of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “The trend in the United States, and that is at least in the Nuclear Posture Review, is a way and these are regional contingencies from not only nuclear deterrence but also on the side of advanced conventional capabilities, that this is seen as the future rather than relying only on nuclear deterrence,” he said. “That is potentially more credible than only relying on nuclear deterrence.”